From Himalayas To Hormuz

The August 26 flash floods, triggered by the collapse of glacier-covered mountain slopes, landslides and the subsequent swelling of the Bhotekoshi River along the Nepal-China border, flattened thousands of homes and resulted in devastating environmental and humanitarian losses. Rapid glacier retreat, destabilising mountain slopes and the growing threat of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are making the Himalayan landscape increasingly fragile.  All three major transit points between Nepal and China remain closed. The floods illustrated the vulnerability of Nepal’s cross-border connectivity infrastructure, particularly along its high-altitude, mountainous frontier with China’s Tibet Autonomous Region. They are, to quote former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, “problems without passports” disrupting cross-border trade, transit, connectivity and supply chains between Nepal and China.   The “Himalayan Tsunami,” in words of Nepal’s Prime Minister, Balendra Shah, is not a local tragedy, but a “close warning for humanity.”

Thousands of miles from Nepal, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for global oil shipments and a significant share of liquefied natural gas—can quickly create hardships from roads to households' kitchens. Other maritime routes, including the Panama Canal, Suez Canal, Bab al-Mandeb and Turkish Straits, are crucial to the flow of energy and consumer goods around the world, yet remain vulnerable to geopolitical crises. Closer to home is the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest maritime passages and a vital route for energy supplies moving from the Middle East to Asia. It connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans. India lies near the strait's western approaches, an area important to its Act East policy. Great Nicobar, India’s largest island, together with the Andaman Islands constitutes the Union Territory of Andaman and Nicobar Islands—India’s strategic bridge between the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. 

Strategic competition 

India plans to develop Great Nicobar as a major commercial and logistics centre, including an international container transshipment terminal at Galathea Bay, a dual-use airport, energy facilities and a township. Its location near the Strait of Malacca gives it considerable commercial and strategic importance. Strategic competition between China and India is already visible across South and Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, including the Strait of Malacca, Singapore and the entrance to the South China Sea. The strait is about 2.8 miles at its narrowest point. In November 2003, Chinese President Hu Jintao expressed concern that “certain major powers” could block the strait and threaten China’s economy. Strategists have since described China’s reliance on this passage as the “Malacca dilemma.”