Mutual fund SIP returns: India averaged 8.4% over rolling 5-year periods; how did it compare with global markets?

Systematic investment plans (SIPs) are often associated with disciplined investing and rupee-cost averaging. But does investing a fixed amount every month necessarily lead to good returns, regardless of the market?

An analysis shared by Niranjan Avasthi, President at Edelweiss Asset Management, on X provides a global comparison of SIP returns.

A comparison of 120 rolling five-year monthly SIPs across 10 global markets over the past 10 years, from October 2016 to September 2026, shows that the same SIP discipline has produced very different outcomes depending on the market. All returns in the analysis are measured in US dollars.

The Nasdaq-100 delivered the highest average XIRR at 19.1%, followed by the S&P 500 at 13.7%. India delivered an average XIRR of 8.4%, with 98% of the rolling five-year SIP outcomes ending in positive returns.

What does a 10-year period and rolling 5-year SIP return actually mean?

The 10 years refer to the overall period from October 2016 to September 2026, during which the 120 rolling five-year SIP outcomes were calculated. In other words, 120 different five-year windows, moving month by month across a 10-year period, were analysed.

For example, one SIP could be evaluated over January 2016–December 2020, the next over February 2016–January 2021, and so on. In this analysis, 120 such five-year monthly SIP periods were examined for each market.

This is useful for investors because one five-year period can be unusually strong or weak. Rolling returns provide a broader picture of how consistently an SIP has performed.

Did India deliver consistent SIP outcomes?

Of the 120 rolling five-year SIP outcomes, 87% generated annualised returns between 6% and 12%, while 7% were between 0% and 6%. Only 2% were negative, meaning 98% of the outcomes were positive.