U.S. pullout from Iraq is a tipping point

Iraq has weighed heavily on the American psyche after years of US military engagement, billions of dollars in expenditure, and thousands of American and Iraqi lives lost.

One important distinction: grammatical corrections do not confirm the accuracy of the article’s claims, particularly those concerning the US withdrawal, Iraq’s political leadership, the Iran conflict and the status of air-defence systems.

Introduction

On 30 September, the last US troops left Iraq, ending more than two decades of US military presence. Since the 2003 invasion, the US-Iraq relationship has been defined by the presence of American troops. The security agreement to end Operation Inherent Resolve, the mission to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), was negotiated in September 2024 under the Biden administration and divided into two phases. The first phase involved the withdrawal of forces from central and southern Iraq, including Balad Air Base, north of Baghdad, and Ain al-Asad Air Base in Anbar province, by September 2025. The second phase involves the withdrawal of approximately 2,500 American soldiers from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the closure of Erbil Air Base. The Trump administration is now implementing the phased drawdown of the operation and the transition to bilateral security cooperation.

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Why Iraq matters

Iraq has weighed heavily on the American psyche after years of US military engagement, billions of dollars in expenditure, and thousands of American and Iraqi lives lost. For many Americans, Iraq represents one of the “forever wars”, and the US withdrawal aligns with President Donald Trump’s vision of reducing the overall American military footprint in the Middle East. The departure will be welcomed by many Iraqis and Iranians, who have long sought the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Iran shares its longest land border with Iraq and fought a decade-long war with its neighbour. However, the US invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein removed Tehran’s greatest regional threat, apart from Israel, and paved the way for Iran to expand its economic, political and military influence in Iraq. Iran-backed militias in Iraq grew in strength in the years that followed, providing Tehran with a potent instrument of asymmetric defence. However, Iraq’s current Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, has promised to disarm these militias. Even as Iraq appears to be fading from the American consciousness, the US remains paramount for Iraq’s rulers, who view it as a pivotal counterweight to Iranian overreach and a critical economic lifeline. Iraq’s leadership, whether Shia, Sunni or Kurdish, has indicated broad support for maintaining relations with the US across the political spectrum, including among those with political and economic ties to Iran. Iraq’s Shia leaders may have religious and political links to Iran, but they also have distinct interests of their own. Although Iraq’s political leaders have not always acceded to US demands, they have made decisions that advance Iraqi interests, even when those decisions come at the expense of Iranian interests.

Why the US needs to remain engaged