The night sky could become the stage for another natural light show as a cloud of solar material races toward Earth. A coronal mass ejection (CME) released by the Sun earlier this week is expected to interact with Earth’s magnetic field, potentially triggering the northern lights across parts of the United States and Canada.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Centre has issued a G2 moderate geomagnetic storm watch for October 9, with G1 minor to G2 moderate conditions expected as the CME arrives.
The event follows an M1.4-class solar flare from active region AR4549 on October 6. Forecasts suggest the strongest viewing opportunities could come overnight from Thursday, October 8, into Friday, October 9, although the exact timing and intensity can change as scientists track the CME.
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Recent forecasts suggest the aurora could become visible farther south than usual if the storm reached G2 strength, with parts of the northern US and Canada having the best chances.
CME From Solar Flare Is Heading Toward Earth
The solar event began with a long-duration M1.4 flare from AR4549 on October 6. The eruption produced a CME that space-weather agencies have been monitoring for its potential Earth-directed component.
The Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre estimated the CME’s projected speed at roughly 560 kilometres per second, while observations indicated an almost full-halo appearance. Current modelling points to an Earth arrival around October 9, although scientists continue to refine the timing.
NOAA subsequently issued its G2 watch, saying G1 to G2 geomagnetic storms are likely on October 9 as the CME reaches Earth.
When Could the Northern Lights Appear?
The most promising window is expected to run from late Thursday, October 8, into the early hours of Friday, October 9.
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