Nepal Can See El Niño Coming?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which alter normal weather patterns worldwide. In 2026, El Niño brought prolonged drought to many U.S. states, damaging vegetation, increasing electricity and water bills, harming wildlife, and reducing agricultural production. Combined with ongoing global wars and conflicts, these conditions have driven up fuel, transportation, and food prices. Yet El Niño’s effects are not confined to the United States; they can travel across continents, disrupting livelihoods in countries such as Nepal.

A climate disturbance originating in the Pacific Ocean can weaken Nepal’s monsoon, reduce harvests, and increase disease risks. However, timely forecasts can turn scientific knowledge into a practical protection mechanism. Although El Niño begins thousands of kilometers away, its effects can reach Nepali households through smaller rice harvests, higher food prices, or contaminated water. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean–atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific that recurs irregularly every two to seven years and typically lasts 9–12 months. Some El Niño events can persist longer. 

Warm coastal waters

Its name, Spanish for “the little boy”, originated with Peruvian fishers who observed unusually warm coastal waters around Christmas. Normally, easterly trade winds pile warm surface water near Indonesia while cold, nutrient-rich water rises off South America. During El Niño, those winds weaken; warm water and tropical rainfall shift eastward, air pressure changes across the Pacific, and the altered heat source rearranges the Walker circulation. The ocean and atmosphere reinforce one another through the Bjerknes feedback: weaker winds allow more warming in the eastern warming, which in turn weakens the winds. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declares an El Niño when the three-month average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reaches at least +0.5° C for the required number of consecutive seasons and is accompanied by corresponding atmospheric changes.