Trump’s China paradox: Pushing partners towards Beijing

America First Policy Institute’s Northern Trojan Horse report warns that deeper ties could allow Beijing to bypass US restrictions through Canada and gain leverage over vital supplies, including critical minerals.

Donald Trump left his September summit with Xi Jinping with a longer trade truce and pledges of further talks. From Ottawa, London and New Delhi, leaders could see a troubling contradiction in American policy: Washington was improving relations with Beijing while making ties with its own partners harder to sustain.

There were practical gains: proposals for better tariff treatment covering US$30 billion of goods in each direction, talks on artificial intelligence and reported progress against chemicals used to make illicit drugs. Yet disputes over Taiwan and technology remained, along with doubts about whether Beijing would honour its commitments.

But the Canada/US Trade war was on full display days later, as the US began barring specified Canadian alcoholic beverages, dairy products and motorcycles. Announced on September 8 and implemented on September 29, the prohibitions followed 50 per cent tariffs on selected Canadian goods and Ottawa’s retaliation. Targeting roughly $1 billion worth of Canadian goods (with some estimates up to $19.9 billion depending on definitions), representing a tiny fraction of the $872+ billion in annual bilateral trade. The announced product ban is on alcohol, motorcycles and mopeds and some dairy products.

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The President says Canada treats American trade unfairly. There have been some nasty words uttered towards our country, the wider effect deserves scrutiny. President Trump needs partners willing to resist Beijing’s use of trade as a political weapon, yet his own measures give those countries reason to fear that he is just emulating the same China economic coercion strategy.

Canada showed where this can lead. As many were still packing our presents and heading to the gym On January 16, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a strategic partnership with China covering energy, agriculture and trade. It included an initial quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a 6.1 per cent tariff, alongside better access for Canadian farm exports.

In a recently released report The America First Policy Institute’s Northern Trojan Horse report warns that deeper ties could allow Beijing to bypass US restrictions through Canada and gain leverage over vital supplies, including critical minerals. It calls for North American trade and investment safeguards to be aligned more closely, including protections against forced labour which is required under the USMCA agreement.